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Friday, August 31, 2007

Dollar Mixed ahead of Bernanke


Dollar Mixed ahead of Bernanke, Swiss Lower after CPI

Dollar is mixed today, trading with an undertone against Euro and Sterling but edges higher against the Japanese yen. The US economic calendar is very busy today with Jul personal consumption and core PCE deflator on the cards.


However, Bernanke's speech Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming will likely steal the show. Fed fund futures are currently pricing in a 25bps rate cut from Fed on Sep 18. Though nobody will expect Bernanke to confirm it today, markets will be paying attention to the focus of his speech, thus adjusting the expectation for rate cut.

Released overnight, the headline CPI in Japan showed no change in July, however, Core CPI, which excludes food prices, remained in negative territory, declining by 0.1% yoy. Industrial production dropped more than expected by -0.4%, in Jul. Though, unemployment rate continued to improve by dropping to 3.6%, hitting a fresh 9 year low.


The biggest surprise from Japan was indeed the Jul housing starts data which tumbled -23.4% to 0.947m annualized rate, the first time in records since 1978 that the series has dropped below one million. From Australia, retail sales rose 0.9%mom in July after surging 1.4% in the previous mont suggesting that consumer demand remains robust Down Under. Trade deficit also shrank more than expected from -1751m to -756m.

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